Iowans battled record-setting cold to take part in the first nominating contest of the 2024 presidential election, the Iowa caucus.
via: CNBC
Former President Donald Trump is expected to win the GOP caucus by a margin of 20 points or more if polling trends hold. The bigger question is who will take second place, and by how much. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis both poll in the high teens, effectively splitting the non-Trump vote.
Tonight’s caucus also serves as the first official barometer of where the Republican party stands in 2024. For example, if Trump wins support from more than 50% of caucusgoers, it narrows the suggest that even if the the non-Trump vote coalesces around one challenger, that candidate still faces an uphill climb.
On the other hand, if Trump falls short of 50%, it raises the odds that a challenger who can unify the rest of the party, be it Haley or DeSantis, might actually defeat him in a nomination fight.
